Media yesterday showed very disturbing video of future movement supporters and the oppositions beating each other with sticks in the streets of Beirut right after an attack against Hizbullah offices in some Beirut suburbs.
Despite the fact that Hizbullah denied such an assault which we will come to explain later, but this incident shows more than we read at first, it shows the stress in the streets, and for sure it shows the reaction of Hizbullah in case of a civil war is lunched.
Who stood up for Hizbullah during yesterday's attack were neither his supporters nor his militias, they were Amal movement followers.
Yesterday's was just an experiment of the reaction for this war, proveing that there are no intentions for Hizbullah to be dragged into such war even if they were attacked, on contrary, it proves that Hizbullah would direct his deadly militas and arsenal against Israel leaving his backyard to his allies... Amal, Marada... etc.
Clearly there is no decision of a civil war has been taken yet by Sa'ad Al-Hariri the leader of Future movements biggest political party for Sunni's in Lebanon, but we can't blind our eyes about the aggressive announcements issued by Al-Hariri allies Jumblatt and Geagea', both during the anniversary assassination of Al-Hariri's father Rafiq Al-Hariri declared that they are ready for a civil way if this is what the opposition wants.
Finally; heat in the Lebanese air and the region is extremly high, Hizbullah interests have shifted after the assasination of its military cheif leader Imad Mughniya by allegidly Israli forign inteligance departmen "Mossad" and the promis Hizbullah secretary General Hasan Nasralluah made to retaliate and revenge against Israel, would leave the Israli weak political leadership a big space to eliminate Hizbullah from inside out, and involve as less as possible of its troops on ground... this is what we are about to see in few days.
Why Hizbullah denied the attack?
Hizbullah is reading the situation on ground perfectly, HIzbullah leaders know that admitting such incident will motivate their followers and allies to react against the attackers.
Hizbullah yesterday by denying such provocative action avoided increasing heat, and at the same time by using amal followers to defend their offices showed a perfect demonstration of what will happen in a civil war scenario.
5 comments:
I read your blog and i believe what was written about that particular incident in Lebanon showed how biased you are with every word you say against March 14th group... and i don't think that this article would dignify an answer
Its not biased, I disagree with his opinion about the decision of war wither its been taken by hariri or not, My guess is that it was taken but the last is too afarid of the consequances...
u r talking about Hizbullah as a victim, I'de rather cdealing withthem as a terrorist movement... however, I think there is a civilwar and that Leb now is heading from the gray area to the dark one but howinvolve Hizbullah would be in this war, this what will be proves in few days taking in consideration that i don't agree with you at all about the interest part, they need this war and they will be big part of it, those people lives on the blood and every few years they need one
You are assuming that Hizbollah is capable to get into war against Israel, and his Gurrilas are will obay the orders to fight Israel, meanwhile their families are being attacked and killed by the Lebanese.
LEO; Hizbullah militas need this war and your breakdown for the situation isn't accurate, Hizbullah has no chance to survive if Israel headed peace process, their existance depend on the blood and in particualr Israli blood...
Having peace in south lebanon would give no reason for Hizbullah to keep his arsenal not to mention the pressure Syria would be under to disarm them and move forward to a peace process...
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