This is the questions that too many intelligence agencies, political leaders and observers are trying to figure...
No doubt that the speech of Hizbullah Secretary General "Hasan Nasrullah" on Feb 14 2008, was declaration of war, and this time this war won't be the same of the previous once, God forbidden this time this war will be WWIII.
Israeli leadership is avoiding any direct operation against Hizbullah at the meantime and probably for the next few months till it rebiuld and complete its army prepartion, the only alternative plan is to drag Lebanon into civil war which will weakling Hizbullah militias giving the Israeli army the chance to strike once and for all...
According to the situation on ground, Lebanon with their two parties have so far successfully divide this small country of 4million population into two parties, and each party leaders are preparing them selves and their own militias by supplying more weapons and directing more threats to the other party.
As usual in such scenarios, each regional and international country will take side of the fighting parties and start support it.
Syria and Iran will start supporting Hizbullah militias and their allies with weapons and my get further by supporting personal on ground.
US, France, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt will back up March14th group.
In case this civil war was lunched that will put Hizbullah against two scenarios: either Hizbullah will declare war against his oppositions in Lebanon and will fight on Lebanese soil against March14th group, witch of course will weak them and leave them at the end of the day defenseless against any Israeli attack, and this option is unlikely...
Or Hizbullah will declare war against Israel and start his operation on the Northern of Israel leaving the fight inside Lebanon to his partners... Amal, Marada, etc...
Since that the first option in unlikely to happen, then what will take place in the second option?!!!
Israel will retaliate with its full strength against any attack or operation on their Northern border which will give it the chance to restore some of its lost glories... and sure this will put Hizbullah between the two hummers, inside Lebanon ongoing war and Israeli attack aiming to eliminate their entity.
One question left, will Iran be an active part of this war and if yes what will be the consequences? is it possible that the region is heading to WWIII??!
Looking forward to having your thoughts...
2 comments:
Yes there musy be a war down there in the region...
The situation is on edge among all the Lebanese parties, the evil countries like Syria and Iran are trying to dominate the leaders in Lebanon.
Those outlaw countries won't stop without war against them and their gorellas in Lebanon
The 2006 war against Hezbullah/ Lebanon proved one thing. Lebanese leaders were smart enough to stand together until the war was over.
Anyway, just for the sake of argument and without really thinking about all options here is a scenario fits for a sci/fi movie
Civil war in Lebanon that Hezbullah will turn its back to, while in the mean time Israel attacks both Hezbullah and Syria. Iran, Egypt, KSA, USA ... etc won't get directly involved.
Who do you think will win such a war?
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