Hizbullah wins again

The Israeli cabinet's decision to strike a prisoner-exchange deal with the Hizbollah movement in Lebanon - on the eve of the anniversary of the war between the two sides of 12 July-14 August 2006 - will not be remembered as one of Israel's most glorious moments. Even its chief architect, prime minister Ehud Olmert, has referred to the deal in terms of "sadness" and "humiliation"; while it has been staunchly opposed by the heads of Israel's internal-security agency (Shin Bet) and foreign-intelligence agency (Mossad), as well as by a number of Israeli politicians across the political spectrum. Indeed, the exchange of captives itself (or in the case of two Israeli soldiers whose seizure precipitated the 2006 war, their remains), which is planned to occur by 16-17 July 2008 at latest, can be described as a replay of what Israel's own investigative commission into that war regarded as a historic defeat.

True, Israel has made similar deals in the past - some involving the release of much larger numbers of prisoners than the five Lebanese to be freed this time. But the very nature of the current exchange, as well as its strategic implications, renders it a zero-sum game in which Israel loses and Hizbollah again emerges triumphant. In implementing it, Israel will effectively fulfil the Hizbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's "truthful promise" to secure the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel (the original aim of the operation Hizbollah carried out on 12 July 2006 when it abducted two Israeli soldiers on the Israel-Lebanon border) and reconfirm his oft-repeated slogan: "just as I always used to promise you victory, now I promise you victory once again". The overall impact will be to give these popular catchphrases the appearance of strategic foresights.

The following are the main features of the humileating deal as set out by the office of Ehud Olmert (the leader of Zionism in Israel):

1. The bodies of captured soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev will be returned to Israel along with the remains of soldiers killed in the 2006 Lebanon war. A report on the disappearance of Ron Arad, an airman missing in Lebanon since 1986, will also be handed over.

In exchange for the return of the remains of the captured soldiers, Israel will "release prisoners and detainees being held in its prison facilities, and will transfer bodies and information, as follows:

"A. Prisoner Samir Kantar (a Lebanese prisoner jailed for life for a deadly 1979 commando raid on northern Israel) and four Lebanese fighters being held by Israel will be released to Lebanon.

"B. The bodies of dozens of Lebases Martyrs, including eight members of Hezbollah, will be delivered to Lebanon.

"C. Information on the four missing Iranian diplomats (captured by militiamen in Christian east Beirut in 1982) will be delivered to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

"D. Following the implementation of the deal, Palestinian prisoners will be released. The number and identities of the prisoners will be determined by the terrorist state of Israel.

"2. Mr. Ofer Dekel, the official responsible for the negotiations on behalf of Ehud Olmert, will continue the process of implementing the negotiations according to the principles detailed in this decision.

"3. The Israeli gov. will hold an additional discussion in order to complete and implement the agreement according to the principles detailed in this decision.

"4. The government of Israel reiterates and confirms its obligation to exhaust all that is required in order to obtain credible and solid information that will shed light on the fate of Israel air force navigator Captain Ron Arad.

"5. At the same time, the government of Israel reiterates and confirms its commitment to continue acting for the release of Corporal Gilad Shalit (held by Hamas since his capture in a deadly cross-border raid in June 2006).

"6. The government of Israel will not slacken in its efforts to locate and bring home the missing and those Israeli soldiers whose resting place is unknown."